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Three burning Springbok questions Rassie Erasmus must answer in 2025
Get the fire started, grab a handful of biltong and pour yourself a double brandy and coke; the Springboks are back.
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The start of a new Test season can feel like the night before Christmas. But this year, with a Barbarians tune-up to open the campaign, there are questions hanging in the air like braai smoke at dusk. How they settle could be pivotal as an ageing squad takes aim at an unprecedented World Cup three-peat in 2027.
Sweeping Italy and Georgia at home? Non-negotiable. Retaining the Rugby Championship crown? Strongly encouraged. And of course there are score-settling missions in Ireland and France come November.
But these will be regarded as means to an end. South African rugby trades in one currency; a shining golden trophy handed out every four years. If Rassie Erasmus wants to keep the main thing the main thing, three key areas need attention over the next six months.
What do they do with the legends?
Something happened during the United Rugby Championship quarterfinal between the Sharks and the Bulls this month that does not happen very often. A scrum with a front row consisting of Ox Nche, Bongi Mbonambi and Vincent Koch went backwards. Over 300kg of prime World Cup-winning beef was shunted in reverse at an almost staggering speed.
The culprits were a trio with just 22 Test caps between them. Two of them – Johan Grobelaar and Jan-Hendrik Wessels – are still in their 20s. The veteran – Wilco Louw – is still only 31, a certified pup as far as props are concerned. And though team strategies are not swayed by just a single scrum, the symbolism was poignant.
Of the 45 players assembled for July’s Tests, nearly half are over 30. Most were central to the 2019 and 2023 World Cup triumphs. But how many will still be effective, let alone in one piece, come 2027?
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Willie le Roux, just two caps shy of a century, may call time by the year’s end. His rugby brain is elite, but his legs have gone. Mbonambi has looked tired in parts. Cobus Reinach and Faf de Klerk don’t have the zip they once possessed. Makazole Mapimpi and Lukhanyo Am are not the menaces of old.
Pointing out that a rugby team is in need of a few tweaks is hardly revelatory. But the team assembled for the effective friendly against the Barbarians is revealing. Only loose forward Vincent Tshituka, hooker Marnus van der Merwe, as well as the props Asenathi Ntlabakanye and Neethling Fouche are among the new faces in the group. And apart from Morne van der Berg at scrum-half and Jean-Luc du Preez at the base of the pack, it’s effectively a full strength team.
The message is clear; you have to be immense to break into this cohort. That’s all well and good, but if one of the old warhorses breaks down or loses form, and a deputy hasn’t built up the requisite experience to make the grade, Erasmus might realise that he’s missed a trick.
Do they stick with the big boys or run it from deep?
The bench for this weekend has an unfamiliar feel to it. Not just because of the absence of Handre Pollard, the man Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu recently called the greatest fly-half of all time. It’s that the Bomb Squad has been somewhat defused with five forwards supplemented by three backs.
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One of those backs is the 1.94 m, 113 kg Andre Ezterhuizen. But Manie Libbok and Reinach complete the set and will reprise their union that blew hot and cold during the 2023 World Cup in France.
Now this one-off game against a Barbarians team that will be expected to run from deep might not reveal too much. Then again, perhaps Tony Brown and Erasmus have recognised that the Boks have evolved and so the approach should as well.
What then do they do with a plethora of playmaking backs? Only Pollard and Libbok are bonafide No.10s, which is good or bad depending on your viewpoint. Aphele Fassi is the incumbent at No.15 but will that be the case once the fit again Damian Willemse gets up to speed? And what of Canan Moodie and Jordan Hendrikse? Do they squeeze into a matchday 23 by virtue of their versatility?
Over the course of the year it would be great to see different combinations put to the test. There’d be no harm throwing out a backline of Grant Williams, Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Willemse, Ethan Hooker, Moodie, Edwill van der Merwe and Fassi. Why not? Erasmus might be tempted to write down all the names at his disposal, place them in a hat and pick them out at random.
Now is the time to experiment. He has the tools, more than he’s ever had in the backs. Sending it wide at the expense of extra big boys on the bench could pay dividends down the road.
Can someone else rise to lead?
Siya Kolisi remains the beating heart of this team, and as Erasmus has said, if he’s fit, he skippers. But being fit enough to play and warranting a place in South Africa’s best XV are two different things and by 2027, Kolisi will be 36.
A recent move to the back of the pack with the Sharks has allowed Kolisi to play more towards the ball, and he remains a threat in the trams. But can he genuinely hold his place in the best XV in two years? That uncertainty should prompt action now.
The good news is that Kolisi has fostered a culture of shared leadership. The team isn’t reliant on just one voice. But someone else will eventually need to wear the armband. Eben Etzebeth is the obvious choice and has led the side before. So has Salmaan Moerat and Mbonambi. Pieter-Steph du Toit is an influential figure. Could others shoulder the responsibilities of being a Boks skipper? Now seems like as good a time as any to find out.
With two Tests in New Zealand and tough assignments come November, the Boks’ win-loss record might not be as pretty as some would hope.
But results outside of World Cups are simply a means towards an end. After all, Erasmus only won 50 per cent of his matches in charge in 2018 and lifted a golden trophy a year later. Sacrificing short term gains for long term solutions could see him do so again.
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No doubt SA’s results last year indicated that they were doing many things right, I’m just not sure that developing a new generation of players as capable as the previous one is one of those things. And I don’t think that is Rassie’s fault. I think the old guard have continued playing so well for so long that its hard to drop them, and that there aren’t very many young players really putting their hands up for consideration (before you or anyone else starts listing young SA players - consider that literally any other test team could produce a longer list).
I assume the loose forward trio for the ABs will be Finau, Savea, and Sititi. I have no idea who the trio will be for SA. Obviously PSDT picks himself, but I feel Kolisi is now in the team for his leadership only, rather than his ability round the park, so he could lose his spot to Kwagga or van Staden. Wiese is probably the most likely no.8, but again - could be displaced by Kwagga.
The boks in 2023 showed you can win a world cup without a settled 10. They made it to the SF with Libbok - a man who had less than 10 caps at the start of the tournament, then switched to Pollard, a much more experienced player, but someone who had only started one test in the previous 12 months. The triumvirate of SFM, Libbok, and Pollard is looking pretty good, but in terms of experience they are far outstripped by thee combination of McKenzie, Barrett, & Mo’unga. Of course there are questions about whether the AB flyhalves will still be in form come 2027, but that question could be asked of SA’s players in almost every single position apart from flyhalf.
Maybe Rassie does know exactly who his first, second, third etc. choice players are in each position, but he doesn’t know who they will be in 2027. It is possible that Mbonambi, Mostert, Kolisi, Etzebeth, de Allende, Kolbe, Mapimpi, etc. will still be test standard in 2 years time, but its very likely that many of them won’t be. If they are not available, then I think one issue will be simply that the next gen are not quite as good. Nortjé and Moerat both look like great talents, but does anyone really think they will be as good as Mostert & Etzebeth? Will Wessells and Grobbelaar come close to Mbonambi & Marx? Will Fassi ever hit the heights of le Roux?
Maybe your answer to some of these questions is “yes” - but that brings us on to the bigger issue, which is that retaining so many older players works against younger players gaining experience. Wallace Sititi, for example, will almost certainly go to the next world cup with something like 30 or 40 caps. If he was a south african, he would be stuck behind PSDT, Kwagga, Wiese, etc., and probably gain half that number. On the one hand, that does just demonstrate that in many positions SA have better players than NZ do, but on the other hand it means that in 2027 and possibly 2031, SA will have less experience to draw on. Eben Etzebeth was 24 when he won his 50th cap for the Boks. Le Roux was 29. Kolisi & Marx were 28. Pollard was 27. Currently the youngest Bok with 50 caps will turn 31 in 2 weeks. Only one player aged 26 and under has more than 10 caps. I think that should be concerning, given how much SA have relied upon experience in the past few years!
Lol
You are the master of your fate. You are the captain of your soul.
I am aware that facts irritate you. But it is up to you to decide how to respond to them.
I suppose for us ABs fans looking at the Boks squad and team that still winning but can seem diminishing in our eyes,is that we unconsciously compare against the sick feeling in our puku we had after the pre World Cup game which thank goodness didn’t reoccur,there have been moments for sure but that was the benchmark of my uncomfortable
I don’t totally believe that good players need that many tests to be on point but often it takes tests giving different guys a go to find the good one
The Springboks are in transition. This year could be a tough one. I reckon the Boks will lose their number one ranking at some point and possibly to the All Blacks or Ireland as they have a relatively good schedule this year which includes 3 home tests against a weakened France and two huge ones against the Boks. Aside from that every other test match looks winnable for them. What will be concerning for the Boks is the Number of players who are now looking decidedly worse off one year later. As mentioned, Am, Kok, Mbonambi, Etzebeth, De Jager and several others all look like they are starting to enter the twilight of their careers. The Boks have plenty of replacements who could step up into those positions but the experience is the problem and Rassie will need to give these guys a consistent chance even if it means some short term pain for the Boks.
I think next year will be the main transition year for them. The squads we’ve seen so far seem to indicate that Rassie wants to give the old guard one more run.
I don’t think there’s a better coaching team in international rugby right now. Working with a pretty unique and incredible batch of players. Old and new, rookies and World Cup winners. Supported by a pretty well-oiled management structure and operational teams.
As far as organisations go, the fundamentals are looking pretty good for another successful year.
I think they’ll do just fine.
Agree with all of that.
Rassie probably knows how many days and hours until the next world cup but also seems to not be looking beyond the upcoming RC with the squad and it’s age profile.
I think that’s the right move as they should be targeting silverware again. Especially with that squad.
I think they will begin a decent this year. Probably ranked 2 and maybe 3 by years end and it would have been lower if not for the Lions tour of Aus.
As a fan of the sport I’d just like to see their wingers get the ball a little more.
That Moodie lad also looks special.
Chur to that
Moodie’s looked out of sorts at the bulls. But I think that’s more an issue of how Jake White had used him.
I think that Rassie still believes in him and that it is telling how much talent he has. But he’s had a quiet run with the boks and I hope he gets back to his best in the green and gold.
Good questions.
“Of the 45 players assembled for July’s Tests, nearly half are over 30. Most were central to the 2019 and 2023 World Cup triumphs. But how many will still be effective, let alone in one piece, come 2027?”
How many of them are still in one piece now? Its pretty telling that SA went from having the most settled team in the world from 2021-2023, to absolute inconsistency in selection in 2024. Obviously the team still did extremely well, but the message seemed to be that the best players couldn’t be relied upon to perform every week. Etzebeth and PSDT are still world class, but there aren’t many more names that really strike fear into the hearts of their opponents. SA will still win a lot of games, but that will be by virtue of how well drilled they are, and how well used they are to playing together. As the old guard begin to lose their places in the side, that will cease to be the case.
JHC.
So you’re consistently not satisfied that Rassie has done enough to bring in new players.
And when he does mix it up you label the boks absolutely inconsistent?
The bottom line is that they win. And continue winning. Consistently. The rest coming from you is just jealous nonsense.
You wish your team could win, consistently. “Always wrong about the boks”, “Jealousy makes you nasty”, Finn.
Yeah everyone said the same in the lead up to the 23 WC… There was no inconsistency in selection last season, we blooded new talent, used more players than any other nation, won the rugby champs, ended the year ranked 1st in the world and the 2 games we did lose were by a point each. I would say thats a pretty decent season.
It’s quite ironic how when you start giving new players opportunities you have “inconsistency” in selection, laughable tbh.