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A Bulls win over Leinster in URC final would be a 'huge, huge upset'
By Ian Cameron
The United Rugby Championship will crown its champion at Croke Park on Saturday and former Ireland back-row Stephen Ferris is convinced Leinster enter with every advantage while the Vodacom Bulls chase history from the underdog trench.
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“I think it will be a very tight game. There’s a lot of talk about Leinster not having the success they should have with the players they’ve got at their disposal, which will bring a nervousness if the Bulls are still in it come the end of the game.
“There is a lot of pressure on Leinster to win which gives freedom to the Bulls and could play into their hands. The shackles are off for the Bulls, and they have the confidence of beating Leinster in semi-finals in previous years.”
Leinster, eight-time champions, last lifted the trophy in 2018; the Bulls have twice dumped them out in semi-finals but fallen at the last hurdle in 2022 and 2023. Ferris believes this Leinster vintage has clicked.
“Everything is falling right for Leinster and they are peaking at the right time. This time round they have the Bulls at home – it’s different to last time.”
Ferris warns, however, that Jake White’s squad will arrive armed with intent and a revised plan.
“The Bulls are going to turn up and give it their best shot – they are not a team that’s going to roll over, they bring so much physicality and they are a well-coached team. They may seem casual, relaxed and laid back on their social media now they are here in Dublin, but they will be ready and raring to go.
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“Jake White (Bulls Head Coach) has coached South Africa and been involved in the game for a long time. He will come up with a strategy and game plan that has worked previously with a few adjustments.
“Jake White will 100 per cent understand that their performance against Sharks will not get them the win on Saturday. They only had 39 per cent possession in that semi-final game, they didn’t have as many entries into the 22 as the Sharks – plus they had three yellow cards. It’s crazy with three yellow cards, the Bulls still managed to win a URC semi-final. Jake White understands the performance has got to be so much better against this Leinster team.”
“The reality is it will be a huge, huge upset if the Bulls come to Dublin and overturn Leinster and win. That would make it five years in a row that Leinster have finished a season without a trophy. There is so much to play for. There are so many elements to this Final, it should be a fire-cracker of a game.”
“Bulls can’t just give Leinster easy opportunities. It’s going to be more about what’s between the ears.”
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“The coaches will be trying to get the mental parity of their players right and to make sure they peak at the right time – to ensure they are not going through the motions but that the attention to detail is absolutely spot on.
“There are some key players for Bulls – Sebastian de Klerk for one, he is on fabulous form. Plus Johan Goosen at 10 who gives them that really strong kicking game and percentages as well. Expect Bulls to take three points when they are on offer pretty regularly.
“The Bulls are very set piece dominant. It’s all about the scrum and big guys getting on top of the opposition, eking out penalties, getting good field position and trying to launch off it.”
“The thing about the Bulls is they are extremely efficient. They might only get three or four opportunities in a game – but they will take two of them, they have a high success rate. Leinster will have to sharpen up on their efficiency when they are in the right areas.
“The Bulls will be fully focused on trying to be physically dominant like they were last year, make impact tackles, back their defence and stop Leinster’s big runners on the gain line and if they do that hopefully it will stem any flowing attack that Leinster might bring.
“There’s brilliant match-ups all over the pitch but I can’t look any further than the front row. Wilco Louw, Johan Grobbelaar and Jan-Hendrik Wessels destroyed a World-Cup winning front row at Sharks last weekend – now they’re up against expected Lions starter Andrew Porter as well as Dan Sheenan and Thomas Clarkson.”
Croke Park’s history also resonates with Ferris, who savoured Ireland’s 2009 win over the Springboks at the same venue.
“I was fortunate to be part of the Ireland team that beat South Africa at Croke Park back in 2009 and the atmosphere was amazing. It’s an incredible stadium when the crowds come out in their numbers and with a 5pm kick off fans have a good time to enjoy the build-up and the atmosphere. I see Leinster winning this by at least one score – I’d really like to see them lift the trophy.”
Premier Sports will be live from Croke Park in Dublin at 4pm on Saturday to bring rugby fans a full hour of TV build-up ahead of an intriguing contest.
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Leinster are fantastic when their opponents allow them to be, but they can be ineffective when teams figure out how to contain them. The Bulls are the kind of team that can contain them.
Against Northampton in the Champions Cup semi-final, they were 3 points down with 5 minutes to go, and with three separate possessions in the strike zone (two of which being penalties), they could not score. That’s a classic “find a way to win” situation, in which champion teams get the job done regardless of the uncontrollables.
Commentary like Ferris’s above tends to talk about the easy topics, like how many players are internationals etc, but the big questions are all about the track record of putting it all together and winning the high pressure moments. Leinster have a much more decorated squad, for sure, but then so did the Sharks in the semi-final. The Bulls have relied more on having a good plan, good execution and good in-game adjustments.
My view - if Leinster can break the back of this game early then they will win. But if the game is still close going into the fourth quarter then the Bulls ability to find a way will prevail.
I agree with most of what you said, but just like Leinster, the Bulls have the ability to score 2 or 3 tries in 5 to 10 minutes. It's pouring rain, and the Bulls scrum are th best in the competition. They destroyed every team, including the double WC winning most feared scrum in the world in the semi's. The same scrum who destroyed Leinster and the Irish scrums. The Bulls made that Bok front row look like kindergarten.
I hope you’re right about the Bulls ability to contain Leinster. The Bulls have been a bit scrappy for me in the last two outings. Ill-disciplined.
I suspect it’s the other way around today. Leinster needing to contain the Bulls. The Bulls will be passionate today. Playing for Cornal and knowing they have nothing to lose. I’m hoping they use there big forwards to overwhelm the Leinster defence early on and put on a few early scores.
If it’s tight or Leinster get ahead early - game set match Leinster. There’ll be a few cards today too - I’m sure.
Bulls have beaten Leinster in URC knockouts twice before. It can't be THAT big a surprise if it happens again.
Bulls vs Leinster
Played 6 games
Bulls won 4 times, drawn once and lost once since the start of the URC. 2 of those wins was in the semi's of ‘22 & ‘23. Both those semi's contained the Irish international squad in club colours. Bulls beat them away and at home. However, that is just the history of these two teams and the Bulls have the edge on that history. Today is a new day, a new game and history count for nothing. Only what happens in that 80 Min. I believe the Bulls will win this game, but it won't be easy and it will be a close game. It's going to be a cracker
I think that it will be tight. But he has explained the difference between this year and last. The win in the RDS a few years ago was significant at the time, but not as relevant now. Heavy, heavy rain all morning so there will be scrums.